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MLB: Home Run Tool (04/17)

April 17, 2024

Use Betalytics Home Run Projection Tool to project who goes yard today. Sort by edge, value grade, win probability, hit rates and dig into advanced batting metrics. Pick top targets!




Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
Home Run (+230)

*Value: A- Grade (+9.8% Edge)
*37.5% Hit Rate (Season)
*40.1% Win Probability

Marcell Ozuna's batting metrics are off the charts, especially the ones predictive of a Home Run. He has a sweet spot % in the 85th percentile, a hard hit % in the 96th percentile and is hitting the ball with an exit velocity in the 90th percentile. He currently has an elite slugging % (.727) and a low K rate (18.2%). With these metrics, Ozuna is currently a threat to go yard everytime he is at the plate. BetAlytics data projects a 40.1% probability of him getting a Home Run today, a +9.8% edge vs the sportsbook line of +230.



Michael Busch (CHC)
Home Run (+450)

*Value: A+ Grade (+19.8% Edge)
*35.9% Hit Rate (Season)
*38.9% Win Probability

BetAlytics data is projecting a massive edge vs the sportsbook line on Michael Busch to go yard today. Similar to Ozuna, Busch is currently a threat hit a HR anytime he is at the plate. Busch has a sweet spot % in the 92nd percentile, a hard hit % in the 87th percentile and is hitting the ball with an exit velocity in the 94th percentile.

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